6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks - Discussion — Extended Forecasts
Current Weather · Forecast Products
700
FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue October 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 23 2026
There is good agreement among the dynamical model ensemble solutions depicting
the mean 500-hPa height anomalies during the 6-10 day period. The model
guidance indicates good consistency between today and yesterday. A strong
mid-level positive anomaly and associated ridging is forecast over the eastern
contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Meanwhile, a weak negative anomaly and mid-level
troughing is forecast along the West Coast. Further west, positive 500-hPa
height anomalies are forecast over the north-central Pacific between Hawaii and
Alaska. This leads to near-normal 500-hPa heights across Hawaii. Guidance is
indicating mid-level troughing to move into the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
during the period.
Above normal temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS beneath the
strong mid-level positive height anomalies over the central and eastern U.S.
Chances for above normal exceed 80% across the north-central CONUS. Below
normal is the favored outcome over much of the West beneath the 500-hPa
troughing forecast. In Alaska, a transient mid-level height pattern leads to
near normal heights supporting near normal temperatures across Mainland Alaska
with a slight tilt towards above over the Aleutians and Southeast Alaska. In
Hawaii, above normal temperatures are forecast.
Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the West and into the
central CONUS corresponding to the increasing strength of the mid-level trough
over the West. This helps to force strong precipitation chances across much of
the western and central CONUS with chances exceeding 60% for parts of the
Great Basin, Four Corners, and into the Southern Plains. Above normal
precipitation chances have increased relative to yesterday over the Northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley with chances now exceeding 50% in parts of
this region. Below normal precipitation is still forecast for much of the
Northeast, eastern Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic ahead of the mid-level
ridging. In Alaska, above normal precipitation is forecast over the southern
half of the state. In Hawaii, a slight tilt towards above normal precipitation
is favored.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30%
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out 5, Growing
confidence in the mid-level height pattern is offset by the precipitation
anomaly forecast in the West.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 21 - 27 2026
As in the 6-10 day period, there is good agreement among the dynamical model
ensemble solutions depicting the week-2 500-hPa heights. Strong mid-level
ridging remains in place over the north-central CONUS with positive anomalies
extending to the Gulf Coast. Mid-level ridging over the Pacific in the 6-10 day
period has progressed eastwards towards British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest. However, there is a stronger signal for continued troughing over the
southwestern CONUS relative to yesterday. Meanwhile, in Alaska, weak troughing
is favored to develop. Near normal heights remain forecast in Hawaii.
As in the 6-10 day, above normal temperatures are favored across much of the
CONUS beneath mid-level positive height anomalies. Chances for above normal
exceed 70% across the north-central CONUS. Below normal remains the favored
outcome during week-2 over much of the West beneath 500-hPa troughing. In
Alaska, weak mid-level ridging over eastern Alaska favors warm southerly flow
across the eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska with near Normal over the
western Mainland. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures are forecast consistent
with above normal sea surface temperatures in the area.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for much of the western and central
CONUS consistent with the mid-level troughing in the West and potential
propagation of shortwave troughing moving into the central CONUS. Near-normal
precipitation is favored along the Pacific Northwest and Northern California
coast behind the mid-level trough axis. Near to below normal precipitation is
also favored in the East with mid-level ridging dominating. In Alaska, above
normal precipitation is forecast for much of the state consistent with a
mid-level low over the Aleutians. Above normal precipitation remains favored in
Hawaii.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30%
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, Increased
confidence in the mid-level height pattern is offset by small precipitation and
temperature anomalies
FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 15.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050925 - 20061005 - 19980924 - 20131010 - 19891002
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19891001 - 20050925 - 19980923 - 20251006 - 20061004
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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