Eastern Upper/Northern Lower Peninsula — Regional Forecast Discussions

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858  
FXUS63 KAPX 141026 
AFDAPX 
 
Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord MI 
626 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 
 
.KEY MESSAGES... 
 
- Rainy, windy, and cooler temperatures expected later Thursday  
  into Friday.  
 
- Milder second half of the weekend into early next week. 
 
&& 
 
.DISCUSSION... 
Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 
 
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 
 
Sfc high pressure begins to nose in from the west today and tonight  
due to upstream ridging aloft. Thus, dry conditions will be more  
common than not, although with the lingering low level moisture  
would not be entirely surprised to see some patchy drizzle  
early, mainly near Lake Michigan. That being said, probably not  
going to inject any officially in the forecast due to the spotty 
nature, if it happens at all. Northwest winds continue through  
the day today as well, as we remain socked in with clouds. Does  
not look like a huge signal for fog tonight either with high  
pressure drifting off to the northeast across the Canadian  
Shield and the potential for non-zero sfc winds, but we'll see  
about that going forward. Although relatively uneventful today  
and tonight, we'll be able to sniff the next weather system(s)  
upstream. 
 
By Thursday, two distinct features will take aim at northern  
MI. The first feature is an upper low emerging out of the  
Southwest and Central Plains, that slowly moves northeast with  
time on Thursday while weakening. Another more robust feature  
will be diving out of Sask Canada down into the Upper Midwest  
and eventually Great Lakes region. Southern stream piece of  
energy gets absorbed into the more robust feature coming out of  
Canada, which will inject some decent moisture into northern  
Michigan (~1.0-1.4" PWATs, anomalous for this time of year).  
With the combined lift from the stout upper trough to the  
northwest and the sfc reflection from the upper low to the  
southwest coupled with this moisture, a steady and healthy rain  
is upon northern Michigan (beneficial for areas within D1/D2  
drought like the E UP). Current deterministic guidance shows  
around 0.25-0.75" of rain generally, with ENS guidance 
suggesting a medium potential (~40-70%) for 0.50" of rain or  
more across a chunk of our area. 
 
As the two pieces of upper level energy merge/phase and the jet  
stream aloft intensifies, the sfc reflection will follow suit off to  
our east. Thus, pressure gradient will increase through the day on  
Friday with ~35 knot H850 winds overspreading the area late.  
Little less impressive signal compared to yesterday, due to the  
way the energies phase (main energy also noticeably farther to  
the south) and intensity/timing of the low level jet, but windy  
conditions are still expected on Friday, 25 to 40 mph gusts certainly 
possible, potential for higher near the Lake Michigan  
shoreline. Nevertheless, we'll see how this trends in the coming 
days. 
 
Precipitation chances largely relinquish through the weekend and  
into early next week as heights fill back in across northern  
Michigan and temperatures turn milder (60s again). Brief piece  
of energy well to the north across Canada beats the ridging down 
to some degree late weekend into early next week. The only  
consequence for northern Michigan will be an increased pressure  
gradient due to a wound up low pressure system near Hudson Bay. 
Thus, an increase in winds can be expected once more, looks  
like mainly Sunday at this time. 
 
&& 
 
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... 
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 
 
MVFR CIGs to continue through the day today. Slight chance for  
a little -DZ/BR early, but overall dry conditions should  
persist for many. Northwest winds today, 5 to 15 knots on  
average. VFR CIGs attempt to lift to VFR at some terminals late 
this afternoon, with a mix of MVFR and VFR tonight with  
decreasing winds, albeit a subtle shift to the east expected. Do 
not see a huge signal for widespread BR/FG at this time for  
tonight. 
 
&& 
 
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
MI...None. 
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for  
     LHZ345>349. 
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this  
     evening for LHZ347-348. 
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. 
     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for  
     LSZ321-322. 
 
&& 
 
$$ 
 
DISCUSSION...JLD 
AVIATION...JLD