West/Central Upper Peninsula — Regional Forecast Discussions
Current Weather · Forecast Products
405
FXUS63 KMQT 141123
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonable weather persists today through early Thursday.
- Active weather returns Thursday and Friday as a deepening low
pressure system works through the Great Lakes.
- Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly wind gusts
to 50 kts are possible (50-75% chance), creating significant wave
heights between 15-20 ft.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Early this morning, water vapor reveals a weak midlevel trough
dropping southeast into the Great Lakes, while a well-defined
midlevel low spins over the Rockies. This northern trough is
bringing with it another shot of CAA, with 850mb temperatures
already falling to near 0C. Nighttime microphysics shows extensive
lower-level cloud cover across the region, in spite of drier
midlevels, perhaps due in part to this wave moving through as well
as lingering lower-level moisture in the wake of yesterday's
rainfall. This is helping to keep temperatures at least a few
degrees warmer than previously expected, with temperatures still
only in the mid 40s for most expected to fall just slightly further
into the lower to mid 40s area-wide. Heading into the daytime hours,
the shortwave moves out, to be replaced by a brief period of
midlevel ridging and surface high pressure. However, only partially
clearing skies are expected as the cooler airmass over the lake may
be just enough to support lingering lake clouds. Otherwise, expect
highs ranging in the 50s with breezy conditions at least across the
eastern UP; there, NW winds may continue to gust to near 20mph
through the afternoon. Winds go light tonight while temperatures
plummet into the lower 30s and even the upper 20s in the interior-
west. If more breaks in the cloud cover occur, these cooler
temperatures may become more widespread.
The main concern of this forecast period continues to be the
evolution of a surface low in the Great Lakes driven by two phasing
troughs Thursday night through Friday. Operational deterministic
models and their ensemble counterparts are in pretty good agreement
that a ~1009 mb surface low will be placed in the vicinity of
southern Lake Michigan by Thursday evening. Ample northward moisture
transport and isentropic ascent ahead of the lead northern stream
trough will provide enough support for widespread rain lifting into
the UP Thursday afternoon through Friday morning and latest NBM
suggests at least a 50-80% chance for QPF >0.25". Early Friday
morning through Fri afternoon the surface low feature is slated to
work northeast atop the Lower Lakes, placing Upper Michigan on the
northwestern flank. Strong cold air advection and rapid pressure
rises (upwards of 1.5-2mb/hr) will contribute to northerly wind
speeds reaching 25-35 kts gusting to near 50 kts on Lake Superior
and the adjacent lakeshores. There is some uncertainty regarding the
maximum gust potential as ensembles (NBM and ENS) have moderate to
high probability (50-70% chance) of gusts >50 kts whereas model
soundings reveal peak mixing largely near 45 kts. Lake
effect/enhanced rain on the backside of the system will provide an
additional 0.1-0.25" of precip once system rain clear the area.
Wouldn't surprise me to see some wet snow mix into areas of the
interior highlands early Friday morning before temperature warm into
the 40s Friday afternoon. No accumulations expected. As winds settle
late Friday and dry high pressure clears skies from west to east,
temperatures will drop like a rock overnight into Saturday morning,
reaching the mid to low 20s for much if not all of the interior
while the lakeshores may reach freezing for the first time this
fall. Ridging and dry weather dominate through the rest of the
weekend with the potential for another warm up / fire weather
pattern Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Primarily MVFR conditions are expected through at least the early
afternoon as model guidance suggests MVFR as the most likely flight
category (50+%) through about 18Z at all sites. Ceilings gradually
improve to VFR in the 21Z-00Z time frame. Expect winds to primarily
be out of the northwest until becoming light and variable tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Lake Superior: Periods of breezy 15-25 kt NW gusts persist mainly
across the eastern half of the lake through this evening. Winds
briefly lay down below 15kts tonight into early Thursday before
becoming southerly and gusting to around 15-20kts ahead of a strong
cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. This strong cold
front accompanies a deepening low pressure system that works through
the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Strong cold advection and rapid
pressure rises will create sustained winds near gale force with
gusts reaching 45-55 kts in the central lake Friday morning.
Significant wave heights build between 15-20 feet, highest along the
southern lakeshores. Winds and waves slowly subside lake into early
Saturday.
Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Breezy NW winds
near 15-20 kts persist through this afternoon, falling below 15kts
later this evening. Winds turn southerly Thursday ahead of a strong
cold front that whips through the northern bay and lake late Thurs-
early Fri. Northwest winds quickly ramp up between 35-40 kts Friday
with waves building between 5-8 ft. Winds and waves subside below
gale force into Saturday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
for LSZ162-240>242-263.
Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
for LSZ243-244-264.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
LSZ245>251-265>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW/LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW/LC